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\title{\LARGE \textbf{Zoning and the Dynamics\\ of Urban Redevelopment}}
\author{\Large \textbf{Vincent Rollet} \\ \vspace{0.2cm} \large MIT}
\date{}

\input{tables/estimate_effectiveness_tod.tex}
\input{tables/estimate_spillovers_calibration.tex}

\begin{document}

\begin{frame}[plain]
  \titlepage
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Home prices have skyrocketed in many large cities}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/home_prices_large_us_cities.pdf}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Strict zoning is often denounced as a culprit}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{.56\textwidth}
      \only<2->{
        \begin{bluebox}
          \textbf{Zoning}: Regulations restricting characteristics of new buildings.
          \begin{itemize}
            \item \emphcol{Density limits} (e.g., height limits).
            \item \emphcol{Use limits} (e.g., residential only).
          \end{itemize}
        \end{bluebox}
      }
      \begin{wideitemize}
        \item <3-> Some deregulation (\textbf{upzoning}) happening in many cities {\scriptsize \textcolor{gray}{(Chicago, Cambridge, Minneapolis, Berkeley, Denver, Seattle, Austin, NYC, Portland, Raleigh, San Diego...)}}
      \end{wideitemize}
    \end{column}\hfill
    \begin{column}{0.4\textwidth}
      \includegraphics[width=\linewidth]{figures/zoning_reform_newspaper_headlines.png}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Technological constraints matter too}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{.56\textwidth}
      \begin{wideitemize}
        \item <+-> In urban cores, vacant land is scarce.
        \item <+-> Change comes from \emphcol{redevelopment}.
        \begin{itemize}
          \item Demolishing and replacing old buildings.
        \end{itemize}
        \item <+-> Increasingly how cities grow {\scriptsize \textcolor{gray}{(Frolking et al., 2024)}}.
        \item <+-> Requires paying large \emphcol{fixed costs}.
      \end{wideitemize}
      \vspace{.1cm}
    \end{column}\hfill
    \begin{column}{0.4\textwidth}
      \includegraphics[width=\linewidth]{figures/nyc_street_and_skyline_photo.jpg}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]
  \begin{bluebox}
    \centering
    \textbf{How do zoning and the existing building stock influence urban development?}
  \end{bluebox}
  \begin{itemize}
    \item <2-> First paper to build a \emphcol{parcel-level land use and zoning panel} for a city.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Track all parcels and development events in NYC over 2004--2022.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <3-> \emphcol{Dynamic spatial equilibrium model} of urban change.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item {\small \textbf{Supply}: Behavior of forward-looking developers given prices and regulation.}
      \item {\small \textbf{Demand}: Spatial equilibrium model predicts how development affects prices.}
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
  \vspace{0.2cm}
  \only<4->{\begin{bluebox}
      \centering
      \textbf{Policy application: What would be the effects of relaxing zoning?}
    \end{bluebox}}
  \begin{itemize}
    \item <5-> \emphcol{Quasi-experimental evidence} from recent zoning changes.
    \item <6-> Model accurately predicts effects of past upzonings.
    \item <7-> Use model to predict the \emphcol{effects of relaxing zoning} on \textbf{construction} and \textbf{prices}.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Findings}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Zoning strongly hinders construction, and relaxing zoning yields \textbf{large welfare gains}.
    \item <+-> But \textbf{adjustment} to policy change is \textbf{slow}, \textbf{take-up of upzoning is limited}.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Only 1/4 of long-term gains in first decade.
      \item Allowing 5 new units yields only 1 built over 40 years.
      \item Mechanism: Large \textbf{fixed costs} of redevelopment that rise steeply with height.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> \textbf{Consequences}: Relaxing zoning most effective where \textbf{prices are high}/\textbf{density is low}.
    \item <+-> Affordability \textbf{gains geographically spread out} due to migration.
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Contribution}
  \begin{bluebox}
    \emphcol{City structure and evolution} \textcolor{gray}{\scriptsize Burgess (1925), Hoyt (1939), Alonso (1964), Mills (1967), Muth (1969), Ogawa \& Fujita (1980), Lucas \& Rossi-Hansberg (2002), Ahlfeldt, Redding, Sturm \& Wolf (2015), Allen, Arkolakis, \& Li (2015), Heblich, Redding, \& Sturm (2020), Gechter and Tsivanidis (2023), Hsiao (2024)}
  \end{bluebox}
  \only<2->{
    \begin{greenbox}
      \begin{itemize}
        \item[\textcolor{green}{$\rightarrow$}] {\small Instead of long-run static equilibria, focus on \textbf{redevelopment} and \textbf{transition path}.}
        \item[\textcolor{green}{$\rightarrow$}] {\small New granular \textbf{data} allows to show new \textbf{facts} and build a new \textbf{model} of urban change.}
      \end{itemize}
    \end{greenbox}
  }
  \only<3->{
    \begin{bluebox}
      \emphcol{Land use regulation} \textcolor{gray}{\scriptsize Glaeser, Gyourko and Saks (2005), Ganong and Shoag (2017), Glaeser and Gyourko (2018), Hsieh and Moretti (2019), Ospital (2022), Anagol, Ferreira \& Rexer (2024), Peng (2023)}
    \end{bluebox}
  }
  \only<4->{
    \begin{greenbox}
      \begin{itemize}
        \item[\textcolor{green}{$\rightarrow$}] {\small Evaluation of the \textbf{effects of relaxing zoning} (reduced-form + credible extrapolation).}
      \end{itemize}
    \end{greenbox}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Roadmap}
  \tableofcontents[hideallsubsections]
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\section{Data and context}
\begin{transitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Data and context}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{transitionframe}

\begin{frame}{NYC as a case study}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <+-> Largest US city (8.5 million inhabitants).
      \item <+-> Wide variation in density and prices.
      \item <+-> Housing affordability crisis.
      \item <+-> Active policy debate.
      \item <+-> Need to gather data on:
      \begin{enumerate}
        \item Floorspace quantities.
        \item Floorspace prices.
        \item Zoning.
      \end{enumerate}
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{1cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.47\textwidth]{figures/nyc_redevelopment_examples_collage.png}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Floorspace quantities: Parcel-level land use}
  \label{slide:data_panel}
  \parbox{.55\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> I use \emphcol{cadastral maps} to:
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Partition NYC in time-consistent parcels.
        \item Link land parcels to buildings over time.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> Developed a polygon conflation algorithm.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item 5,700 manual adjustments for a perfect match.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <3-> Track universe of parcels over 2004--2022.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item 833,000 parcels in total.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <4-> \emphcol{Building characteristics}:
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Property tax records (scraping, FOIA requests).
        \item StreetEasy (scraped data on 1.6 million units).
      \end{itemize}
    \end{wideitemize}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.45\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<1-3>{\includegraphics[width=0.4\textwidth]{figures/redevelopment_cadastre_overlay_cropped.jpg}\\\includegraphics[width=0.4\textwidth]{figures/redevelopment_cadastre_overlay_legend.png}}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Floorspace quantities: Redevelopment events}
  \parbox{.6\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> Isolate 22,000 \emphcol{redevelopment events}.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Buildings constructed since 2004.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> \emphcol{Building permits}
      \item <3-> \emphcol{Certificates of Occupancy}
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Construction ends.
        \item Scraped and digitized 250,000 documents.
      \end{itemize}
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{2cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.4\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<3->{\includegraphics[width=0.4\textwidth]{figures/certificate_of_occupancy_example.png}}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Floorspace quantities: Redevelopment timelines}
  \label{slide:data_timelines}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/redevelopment_construction_timeline.jpg}\\
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Floorspace prices}
  \parbox{.55\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> \emphcol{Sales prices} from real estate transactions over 2003-2022 (1.2 million observations).
      \begin{itemize}
        \item From NYC Department of Finance.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> Yearly \emphcol{rent} measures for 73,000 buildings.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Scraped 600,000 tax documents.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <3-> Digitized historical sales data from the Real Estate Board of New York.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item 63,000 sales over 1950--1985.
      \end{itemize}
      \vspace{2cm}
    \end{wideitemize}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.45\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<2>{\includegraphics[width=0.43\textwidth]{figures/no_permit_violation_rent_example.png}}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Zoning}
  \label{slide:zoning_101}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{.5\textwidth}
      \begin{wideitemize}
        \item <1-> I match my land use panel with zoning regulations for each year.
        \item <2-> Zoning limits the \emphcol{size} and \emphcol{use} (residential vs.\ commercial) of new buildings.
        \item <3-> Main zoning instrument in NYC: limits on the \emphcol{Floor Area Ratio} (FAR).
        \vspace{0.5cm}
        \begin{bluebox}
          $$\textbf{FAR} = \frac{\text{sq.\ ft of floorspace}}{\text{sq.\ ft of land}}$$
        \end{bluebox}
      \end{wideitemize}
    \end{column}\hfill
    \begin{column}{0.5\textwidth}
      \only<3->{
        \begin{figure}
          \caption*{\textbf{Buildings with a FAR of 2}}
          \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/floor_area_ratio_example_short.jpg}
        \end{figure}
      }
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]
  \parbox{.55\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.55\textwidth]{figures/zoning_map_extract_33c_wide.png}
    \end{figure}
    \only<2->{
      \begin{center}
        \emphcol{Zone R1-2}
      \end{center}
      \vspace{-0.5cm}
      \begin{itemize}
        \item \textbf{Residential} allowed up to 0.5 FAR points.
        \item \textbf{Commercial} not allowed.
      \end{itemize}
    }
    \vspace{0.5cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.45\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<2->{\includegraphics[width=0.413\textwidth]{figures/zoning_map_r1_2_example_light.jpg}}
    \end{figure}
  }
  \only<2->{
    \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
      \draw[red, line width = 3pt] (2.2,5.1) circle (0.8cm);
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\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \parbox{.55\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.55\textwidth]{figures/zoning_map_extract_3d_wide.png}
    \end{figure}
    \begin{center}
      \emphcol{Zone M1-4}
    \end{center}
    \vspace{-0.5cm}
    \begin{itemize}
      \item \textbf{Residential} not allowed.
      \item \textbf{Commercial} allowed up to 2 FAR points.
    \end{itemize}
    \vspace{0.5cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.45\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.413\textwidth]{figures/zoning_map_m1_4_example_light.jpg}
    \end{figure}
  }
  \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
    \draw[red, line width = 3pt] (2.65,4.9) circle (0.8cm);
  \end{tikzpicture}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \parbox{.55\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.55\textwidth]{figures/zoning_map_extract_8d_wide.png}
    \end{figure}
    \begin{center}
      \emphcol{Zone C6-6}
    \end{center}
    \vspace{-0.5cm}
    \begin{itemize}
      \item \textbf{Residential} allowed up to 10 FAR points.
      \item \textbf{Commercial} allowed up to 15 FAR points.
    \end{itemize}
    \vspace{0.5cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.45\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.413\textwidth]{figures/zoning_map_c6_6_example_light.jpg}
    \end{figure}
  }
  \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
    \draw[red, line width = 3pt] (3.1,5.25) circle (0.8cm);
  \end{tikzpicture}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{}
  \label{slide:zoning_data}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> Zoning ordinance adopted in 1961.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Promoted ``towers in the park.''
        \item Separated residential/commercial uses.
        \item Goal was to limit negative externalities.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> Strong persistence over time.
      \item <3-> Several areas upzoned in past decades.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item <3-> Allows to evaluate the effects of upzoning.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <4-> Focus on large planner-initiated changes.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Many veto players.
        \item Exact changes and timing unclear when upzoning discussions begin.
        \item Leveraged in reduced-form.
      \end{itemize}
    \end{wideitemize}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \visible<3->{\begin{figure}
        \centering
        \includegraphics[width=0.5\textwidth]{figures/rezonings_upzoned_parcels.jpg}
      \end{figure}}
  }
\end{frame}

\section{Empirical evidence on redevelopment and zoning}
\begin{transitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Empirical evidence}
    \vspace{0.6cm}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{transitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Redevelopment means densification}
  \label{slide:change_far_2004_2022}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <+-> New buildings 3.4 times larger than the ones they replace (on average).
      \item <+-> Suggests large redevelopment \emphcol{fixed costs}.
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{4.3cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/redevelopment_change_far_change_far_2004_2022.png}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Redevelopment mostly happens when upward growth is allowed}
  \label{slide:redev_distance_maxfar.pdf}
  \parbox{.49\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <+-> Buildings at/over the zoning limit are seldom redeveloped.
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{5.4cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/redevelopment_probabilities_redev_distance_maxfar.pdf}
    \end{figure}
  }
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The effects of upzoning on built FAR materialize slowly}
  \label{slide:upzoning_event_study}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> Compare parcels upzoned earlier vs.\ later.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Identifying assumption: Exogenous timing. \textcolor{gray}{(de Chaisemartin \& d'Haultf{\oe}uille, 2020)}
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> Upzoning increases allowed FAR by $\approx$ 1.
      \item <3-> $\approx$ 10\% of increase used after a decade.
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{3.5cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.48\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<3->{\includegraphics[width=0.47\textwidth]{figures/rezonings_upzoning_event_study_upzoning_builtfar_ip.pdf}}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{The effects of upzoning vary widely}{Effects concentrate in high-price neighborhoods and underbuilt parcels}\label{slide:upzoning_event_study_splits}
  \vspace{.3cm}
  \begin{table}
    \centering
    \begin{tabular}{cc}
      \textbf{Heterogeneity by baseline} & \only<1|handout=0>{\hspace{0.47\textwidth}}\only<2->{\textbf{Heterogeneity by baseline}} \\
      \textbf{neighborhood floorspace prices} & \only<2->{\textbf{built FAR (within neighborhood)}} \\
      \includegraphics[width=0.47\textwidth]{figures/rezonings_upzoning_event_study_upzoning_builtfar_ip_het_price.pdf} &
      \only<2->{\includegraphics[width=0.47\textwidth]{figures/rezonings_upzoning_event_study_upzoning_builtfar_ip_het_density.pdf}}
    \end{tabular}
  \end{table}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Redevelopment reallocates land to its most profitable use}
  \label{slide:price_differentials}
  \vspace{-0.2cm}
  \parbox{.49\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      Commercial-residential price diff. (\$/sq.\,ft)\\
      \includegraphics[width=0.39\textwidth]{figures/maps_pricediff_horizontal.jpg}
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \only<2->{
      \begin{figure}
        \centering
        2004-2022 change in commercial share (pp) \\
        \includegraphics[width=0.39\textwidth]{figures/maps_change_share_com_2004_2022_horizontal.jpg}
      \end{figure}
    }
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Zoning constrains the reallocation of land uses}
  \label{slide:price_differentials_zoning}
  \vspace{-0.2cm}
  \parbox{.49\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      Zoning map \\
      \includegraphics[width=0.39\textwidth]{figures/zoning_maps_zoning_uses_map_very_tight_altcolor.jpg}\\
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      2004-2022 change in commercial share (pp) \\
      \includegraphics[width=0.39\textwidth]{figures/maps_change_share_com_2004_2022_horizontal.jpg}
    \end{figure}
  }
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Remaining questions}
  \begin{wideenumerate}
    \item <+-> \emphcol{Extrapolation}:
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Upzoned neighborhoods were selected: what would happen if we upzoned \textbf{elsewhere}?
      \item The upzonings were limited in scope: what would happen if we upzoned \textbf{more}?
      \item Effects take time to materialize: how large are they in the \textbf{long run}?
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> What are the effects of allowing more construction on \emphcol{prices}?
    \item[$\rightarrow$] <+-> Answer these questions with a \textbf{model of urban change} incorporating:
    \begin{itemize}
      \item[$\bullet$] Dynamic transition path.
      \item[$\bullet$] Fixed costs of redevelopment increasing with old building FAR.
      \item[$\bullet$] Use (residential/commercial) and bulk (FAR) zoning constraints.
      \item[$\bullet$] Externalities associated with different land uses.
    \end{itemize}
    \item[$\rightarrow$] <+-> Use reduced-form analysis of upzoning for \textbf{model validation}.
  \end{wideenumerate}
  \vspace{0.5cm}
\end{frame}

\section{Dynamic model of urban change}
\begin{transitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge A dynamic model of urban change}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{transitionframe}

\subsection{Supply of floorspace by developers}
\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Supply of floorspace} \\
    \vspace{0.6cm}
    \Large Dynamic behavior of developers given prices and regulation \\
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}[t]{Developer choices}
  Developers are atomistic and perfectly foresighted. They make decisions each year:\\
  \begin{figure}
    \begin{tikzpicture}[node distance = 0.5cm, auto]
      \visible<2->{\node [rectangle, very thick, rounded corners, draw=emphcolor, fill=emphcolor!10, draw, minimum height=2em, text width=6.5em, text centered, node distance=1.8cm] (build) {Build?};}
      \visible<2->{\draw[->, very thick] (0,1.0) -- (build);}
      \visible<2->{\node [right of=build, node distance=2cm, anchor=west] {\emphcol{Extensive margin}};}
      \visible<3->{\node [rectangle, very thick, rounded corners, draw=orange, fill=orange!10, minimum height=2em, text width=6em, text centered] at ($(build.south west) + (-1.8cm, -4.18cm)$) (nextperiod) {Next period};}
      \visible<4->{\node [rectangle, very thick, rounded corners, draw=emphcolor, fill=emphcolor!10, draw, minimum height=2em, text width=6.5em, text centered, below of=build, node distance=2.58cm] (howmuch) {How much?};}
      \visible<4->{\node [right of=howmuch, node distance=2cm, anchor=west] {\emphcol{Intensive margin}};}
      \visible<4->{\node [rectangle, very thick, rounded corners, draw=green, fill=green!10, minimum height=2em, text width=6.5em, text centered, below of=howmuch, node distance=2cm] (redevelopment) {Redevelopment};}
      \visible<5->{\node [right of=redevelopment, node distance=2cm, anchor=west] {\textbf{Terminal state}};}
      \visible<3->{\draw[->, very thick] (build.west) -- ++(-1.8,0) node [midway, above] {No} -- ++(0.0, -4.18cm) ;}
      \visible<3->{\draw[->, very thick] (build) -- node[midway, right] {\parbox{8cm}{New building of type $\theta \in \text{Allowed uses} \subset \{R, C\}$ \\[3pt] Parcel has to be on the market (with proba. $p_i$)}} (howmuch);}
      \visible<4->{\draw[->, very thick] (howmuch) -- node[midway, right] {Choose FAR of new building $h^{\text{new}} \leq \bar h_\theta$}(redevelopment.north);}
      \visible<6->{\node [below of=nextperiod, node distance=0.9cm, text centered, text width=6.5em] {$\textcolor{VioletRed}{\epsilon^\emptyset_{it}} +V^\text{next}_{i, t}$};}
      \visible<6->{\node [below of=redevelopment, node distance=0.9cm, text centered, text width=6.5em] (payoff_redev) {$\textcolor{OrangeRed}{\pi^{\theta}_{it}} + \textcolor{VioletRed}{\epsilon^a_{it}}$};}
      \visible<6->{\node [right of=payoff_redev, node distance=3.1cm, text centered, text width=6.5em] (payoff_redev) {\textbf{$\textcolor{red}{\leftarrow \text{Payoffs}}$}};}
    \end{tikzpicture}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Developer profit function}
  \label{slide:profit_function}
  \vspace{1cm}
  $$
  \textcolor{OrangeRed}{\pi^{\theta}_{it}} = \max_{h^{\text{new}}\leq \bar h_{\theta it}} \left[ \underbrace{\textcolor{BlueGreen}{P^{\text{new}}_{\theta it}(h^{\text{new}})} - \textcolor{BlueGreen}{P^{\text{old}}_{it}}}_{\text{Change in property value}} - \underbrace{[\textcolor{Cerulean}{VC_{it} (h^{\text{new}}_{it})} + \textcolor{RedOrange}{FC_{it}}]}_{\text{Cost of redevelopment}} \right]
  $$
  \begin{itemize}
    \item <2-> As buildings age, $\textcolor{BlueGreen}{P^{\text{old}}_{it}}$ decreases, redevelopment becomes more profitable.
    \item <3-> \textcolor{Cerulean}{Variable costs ($VC$)}: construction costs, increase with size of new building.
    \item <4-> \textcolor{RedOrange}{Fixed costs ($FC$)}: eviction, demolition, permitting, etc.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Vary by building (e.g., larger for bigger buildings in dense neighborhoods).
    \end{itemize}
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Demand of floorspace by residents and firms}
\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Demand for floorspace} \\
    \vspace{0.6cm}
    \Large Evolution of prices given developers' choices \\
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Demand for floorspace}
  \label{slide:demand_model}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Neighborhoods endowed with commercial and residential floorspace.
    \item <+-> Workers rent housing $H$, choose home and work locations $(n,m)$ each period:
    $$
    \begin{aligned}
      \max_{n,m,H,C} \; &
      \underbrace{\textcolor{RoyalBlue}{B_{nt}}}_{\text{amenities}}
      \cdot\;
      \underbrace{(H-\underline{H}_{nt})^{\beta}}_{\text{housing}}
      \;\cdot\;
      \underbrace{C^{1-\beta}}_{\text{other cons.}}
      \;\cdot\;
      \underbrace{d_{nmt}^{-1}}_{\text{commuting}}
      \;\cdot\;
      \underbrace{z_{nt}^H z_{mt}^W}_{\substack{\text{idiosyncratic}\\\text{preferences for} \\ \text{ home/work locations} }} \\[0.3cm]
      \text{s.t.}\;& C + R_{nt} H \leq \text{Income}_t
    \end{aligned}
    $$
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Labor income = $s \cdot w_{mt}$, skill $s$ lognormally distributed.
      \item Income from rented floorspace redistributed proportionally to labor income.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> \textbf{Key extension}: Subsistence level of housing and realistic distribution of worker skills.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Essential to rationalize consumed quantities of housing.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Amenities and productivities}
  \label{slide:demand_model_details}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Firms consume commercial floorspace:
    $$Y_{jt} = \textcolor{Purple}{A_{mt}} \;\cdot \underbrace{H_{Fmt}^{\alpha_m}}_{\substack{\text{Commercial}\\\text{floorspace}}} \;\cdot\; \underbrace{L_{Fmt}^{1-\alpha_m}}_{\text{Labor}}$$
    \item <+-> \textcolor{RoyalBlue}{Amenities ($B$)} and \textcolor{Purple}{productivities ($A$)} vary with density of \textcolor{Emerald}{residents ($L_R$)} and \textcolor{OrangeRed}{jobs ($L_F$)}.
    $$\textcolor{RoyalBlue}{B_{nt}} = \bar B_{nt} \textcolor{Emerald}{L_{Rnt}^{\textcolor{RawSienna}{\gamma_{\text{RR}}}}} \textcolor{OrangeRed}{L_{Fnt}^{\textcolor{RawSienna}{\gamma_{\text{CR}}}}}
    \quad \quad \quad
    \textcolor{Purple}{A_{mt}} = \bar A_{mt} \textcolor{Emerald}{L_{Rmt}^{\textcolor{RawSienna}{\gamma_{\text{RC}}}}} \textcolor{OrangeRed}{L_{Fmt}^{\textcolor{RawSienna}{\gamma_{\text{CC}}}}}$$
    \vspace{-0.5cm}
    \begin{itemize}
      \item $\textcolor{RawSienna}{\boldsymbol{\gamma}}$ are the agglomeration elasticities (could be positive or negative).
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> City population and congestion increase with expected utility.
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Dynamic spatial equilibrium}
  \begin{enumerate}
    \item [] An equilibrium is a path of
    \begin{itemize}
      \item \alert<2|handout=0>{Local floorspace supplies}, \alert<5|handout=0>{rents}, and \alert<6|handout=0>{prices};
      \item \alert<3|handout=0>{Population and job distributions};
      \item \alert<4|handout=0>{Local productivities, amenities, wages};
      \item \alert<4|handout=0>{Commuting costs};
    \end{itemize}
    \begin{center}
      Such that:
    \end{center}
    \item \alert<2|handout=0>{Developers maximize profits}.
    \item \alert<3|handout=0>{Workers maximize utility, firms maximize profits}.
    \item \alert<4|handout=0>{Productivities, amenities, and commuting costs adjust (agglomeration/congestion)}.
    \item \alert<5|handout=0>{Floorspace markets clear}.
    \item \alert<6|handout=0>{Prices are the discounted sum of rents}.
  \end{enumerate}
\end{frame}

\section{Model estimation and validation}
\begin{transitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Model estimation and validation}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{transitionframe}

\subsection{Supply}
\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Supply-side parameters}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Prices}
  \label{slide:hedonics}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Value of a building:
    $$\textcolor{BlueGreen}{P_{\theta it}} \quad = \underbrace{\rho^\theta_{nt}}_{\text{Location premium}} \times \underbrace{Q( \textbf{x}_{it})}_{\text{Building quality}} \times \underbrace{h_{it}}_{\text{Building size}}$$
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Estimated through a hedonic regression on the sales data.
      \item Focus on buildings at/above FAR limit (option value of redevelopment $\approx$ 0).
      \item Quality proxied using rich building characteristics in $\textbf{x}_{it}$ (e.g., age, grade, materials, FAR).
    \end{itemize}
  \end{wideitemize}
  \vspace{2cm}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Variable costs estimation}
  \label{slide:variable_costs}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> \textbf{Identification approach}: Revealed preferences.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Use data on FARs chosen by developers for new buildings + prices/zoning they faced.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> \textbf{Challenge}: Zoning induces wedge between price and marginal cost of floorspace.
    \item <+-> \textbf{Parametric assumption}: Cobb-Douglas production of floorspace with capital and land.
    $$\textcolor{Cerulean}{VC_{it}(h_{it})} = \alpha_{bt}^\theta h_{it}^{1/\zeta} e^{\eta_{it}}$$
    \item <+-> Developers choose FAR $h \leq \bar h$ to max profits: $\max_{h \leq \bar h} \{ P(h) - VC(h) \}$.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Use variation on chosen FAR when below the limit and whether the limit is hit.
      \item Recover parameters through \textbf{maximum likelihood estimation}.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> I find costs rise steeply with FAR and align with engineering estimates/reported costs.
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Fixed costs estimation: Intuition}
  \label{slide:fixed_costs}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> \textbf{Idea:}
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Compute expected profit from redevelopment, excluding fixed costs.
        \item Find fixed costs to best match relationship with redevelopment probability.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> \textbf{Parameterization}: fixed costs
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Increase with size of old building.
        \item Increase with neighborhood density.
        \item Larger in historic districts.
      \end{itemize}
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{2cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<2->{\includegraphics[width=0.49\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_validation_costs_redevelopment_probability_prize_by_builtfar.pdf}}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Fixed costs estimation: Algorithm}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Requires solving the full model.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Option value of redevelopment depends on future path of prices.
      \item This path depends on the collective behavior of developers, which depends on fixed costs.
      \item Assume that developers believe fundamentals and zoning will stay constant after 2019.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> Estimation using \emphcol{full-solution approach} (extending Rust, 1987).
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Inner loop: Estimate developers' value function.
      \item Middle loop: Recover price paths by repeatedly solving the demand model.
      \item Outer loop: Maximum likelihood.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> I find fixed costs increase sharply with existing buildings' FAR.
  \end{wideitemize}
  \vspace{2cm}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Demand}
\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Demand-side parameters}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Demand model estimation}
  \label{slide:demand_estimation}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Fundamentals estimated to match commuting flows, rents, and floorspace supplies.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Data: LEHD LODES.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> Commuting elasticity estimated using the correlation between commuting flows and commuting times.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Data: Google Maps.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> Migration and congestion elasticities calibrated from literature ($\varepsilon_M = 3$, $\varepsilon_M = 0.15$).
    \item <+-> Agglomeration externalities estimated by measuring local demand elasticities.
  \end{wideitemize}
  \vspace{1cm}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Price effects of new construction}
  \label{slide:spillovers_method_intro}
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Draw 500-ft disks around large construction events (290 residential, 112 commercial).
    \item Compare the evolution of rents in disks treated earlier vs.\ later.
  \end{itemize}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=0.95\textwidth]{figures/new_building_event_studies_maps_events_rents_zoom.jpg}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \label{slide:all_event_study_rents}
  \begin{figure}
    \includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{figures/new_building_event_studies_effects_new_res.pdf}
    \includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{figures/new_building_event_studies_effects_new_com.pdf}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Price effects of new construction}
  \label{slide:spillovers_method}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Estimate agglomeration parameters via \textbf{indirect inference} to match reduced-form.
    \item <+-> I find positive agglomeration externalities within uses, limited externalities across uses.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Effect of residents on other residents: $\textcolor{RawSienna}{\gamma_\text{RR}}$ = \estgammaRR.
      \item Effect of firms on other firms: $\textcolor{RawSienna}{\gamma_\text{CC}}$ = \estgammaCC.
      \item Corresponding estimates in \textcolor{darkgray}{Ahlfeldt et al. (2015)}: 0.16 and 0.07.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\subsection{Model validation}
\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Model validation} \\
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Predicted effect of upzonings}
  \label{slide:upzoning_validation}
  \parbox{.56\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item <1-> Model estimation separate from reduced-form.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item 90\% of redevelopment on non-upzoned parcels.
      \end{itemize}
      \item <2-> \textbf{Validation exercise}:
      \begin{enumerate}
        \item <3-> Estimate model on non-upzoned parcels.
        \item <4-> Predict evolution of upzoned parcels with/without upzoning.
        \item <5-> Build model-implied effect of upzoning.
        \item <6-> Compare with quasi-experimental estimates.
      \end{enumerate}
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{2.4cm}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.44\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \only<6->{\includegraphics[width=0.44\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_upzoning_validation_upzoning_validation_model_full_sample.pdf}}
    \end{figure}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Model validation: Predicted effect of upzonings}
  \label{slide:model_validation_het}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=0.93\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_upzoning_validation_upzoning_validation_model_het.pdf}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\section{Implications for zoning policy}
\begin{transitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Implications for zoning policy}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{transitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Main counterfactuals}
  \label{slide:results_overview}
  Simulate the evolution of the city until 2060, keeping fundamentals at their 2019 level.
  \vspace{.5cm}
  \begin{wideenumerate}
    \item <2-> \textcolor{darkgray}{\textbf{Status quo}}: zoning stays as is.
    \item <3-> \textcolor{ForestGreen}{\textbf{Realistic but ambitious upzoning}} around transit stations.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item \textbf{Increases total allowed FAR in NYC by 60\%}.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <4-> \textcolor{emphcolor}{\textbf{No zoning}} (excluding landmarks, historic districts, flood zones).
    \begin{center}
      \only <5->{\textcolor{gray}{--------------------------------------------------------}}
    \end{center}
    \vspace{-0.5cm}
    \item <5-> \textcolor{Fuchsia}{\textbf{Frictionless benchmark}} (no zoning, no adjustment costs, price = marginal cost).
  \end{wideenumerate}
  \vspace{1cm}
\end{frame}

\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge To what extent does zoning constrain NYC's growth?}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Under current zoning, NYC continues to grow slowly}
  \vspace{-0.5cm}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=1.01\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_welfare_summary_slide_1.pdf}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Upzoning increases floorspace by 15pp over 40 years}
  \label{slide:cf_upzoning}
  \vspace{-0.5cm}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=1.01\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_welfare_summary_slide_2.pdf}
  \end{figure}
  \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
    \draw[very thick, ->, ForestGreen, bend left=30]
    ([xshift=3.9cm,yshift=-4.2cm]current page.north west)
    to
    ([xshift=2.9cm,yshift=-5.1cm]current page.north west);
    \node[ForestGreen, font=\bfseries\large, text width=5cm] at ([xshift=6cm,yshift=-3.6cm]current page.north west) {Only \estshbuiltnewlyallowedtod\% of the newly allowed floorspace is built};
  \end{tikzpicture}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Completely removing zoning quintuples NYC's growth rate}
  \label{slide:cf_nozoning_floorspace}
  \vspace{-0.5cm}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=1.01\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_welfare_summary_slide_3.pdf}
  \end{figure}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Rent decreases are moderate}
  \vspace{-0.5cm}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=1.01\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_welfare_summary_slide_4.pdf}
  \end{figure}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Rent decreases are moderated by migration}
  \vspace{-0.5cm}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=1.01\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_welfare_summary_slide_5.pdf}
  \end{figure}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{A model ignoring redevelopment greatly overstates effects}\label{slide:full_results}
  \vspace{-0.5cm}
  \begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=1.01\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_welfare_summary_slide_6.pdf}
  \end{figure}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Technological constraints matter for credible counterfactuals}
  \label{slide:3D_map_far_1}
  \begin{figure}
    \begin{tabular}{cc}
      \textbf{2019} & \only<2->{\textbf{2060, status quo zoning}} \\
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_far_initial.jpg} &
      \only<1|handout=0>{\hspace{0.48\textwidth}}
      \only<2->{\includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_far_baseline.jpg}}
    \end{tabular}
    \vspace{0.3cm}
    \includegraphics[width=0.2\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_legend_far.png}
  \end{figure}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Technological constraints matter for credible counterfactuals}
  \label{slide:3D_map_far_2}
  \begin{figure}
    \begin{tabular}{cc}
      \textbf{2019} & \textbf{2060, removing zoning} \\
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_far_initial.jpg} &
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_far_nozoning.jpg}
    \end{tabular}
    \vspace{0.3cm}
    \includegraphics[width=0.2\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_legend_far.png}
  \end{figure}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Technological constraints matter for credible counterfactuals}
  \label{slide:3D_map_far_3}
  \begin{figure}
    \begin{tabular}{cc}
      \textbf{2019} & \textbf{No zoning, no adjustment costs} \\
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_far_initial.jpg} &
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_far_frictionless.jpg}
    \end{tabular}
    \vspace{0.3cm}
    \includegraphics[width=0.2\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_three_d_legend_far.png}
  \end{figure}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Where is zoning a constraint?}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}[t]{Where does relaxing zoning lead to increased supply?}
  \label{slide:het_effects_upzoning_1}
  \vspace{-0.6cm}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_heatmaps_effect_nozoning_increase_far.pdf}
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \vspace{1.5cm}
    \visible<2->{\includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_effect_far_nozoning_40y_nolegend.jpg}}
  }
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Where does relaxing zoning lead to increased supply?}
  \label{slide:het_effects_upzoning_2}
  \vspace{-0.6cm}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_heatmaps_effect_nozoning_increase_far.pdf}
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \vspace{1.5cm}
    \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_effect_far_nozoning_40y_nolegend.jpg}
  }
  \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt, rounded corners] (1.6, 3.45) rectangle (3.35, 8.38);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (7.8, 7.7) -- (3.42, 7);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (10.5, 7) -- (11.3,6.4);
    \node at (11, 7.7) {\parbox{6cm}{Zoning tends not to be binding when floorspace prices are low.}};
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt] (12,5.8) circle (0.8cm);
  \end{tikzpicture}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Where does relaxing zoning lead to increased supply?}
  \label{slide:het_effects_upzoning_3}
  \vspace{-0.6cm}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_heatmaps_effect_nozoning_increase_far.pdf}
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \vspace{1.5cm}
    \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_effect_far_nozoning_40y_nolegend.jpg}
  }
  \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt, rounded corners] (1.6, 6.75) rectangle (6.92, 8.38);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (7.8, 7.7) -- (6.98, 7.5);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (9.5, 7) -- (10.4,4.9);
    \node at (11, 7.7) {\parbox{6cm}{Removing zoning has little effect on parcels with tall buildings.}};
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt] (10.75,4.5) circle (0.35cm);
  \end{tikzpicture}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Where does relaxing zoning lead to increased supply?}
  \label{slide:het_effects_upzoning_4}
  \vspace{-0.6cm}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_heatmaps_effect_nozoning_increase_far.pdf}
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \vspace{1.5cm}
    \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_removing_zoning_effect_far_nozoning_40y_nolegend.jpg}
  }
  \begin{tikzpicture}[overlay, remember picture]
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt, rounded corners] (3.6, 3.45) -- (6.92, 7.38) -- (6.92, 3.45) -- cycle;
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt, rotate=10] (13, 2.15) ellipse (1.5cm and 0.7cm);
    \draw[ForestGreen, line width = 3pt, rotate=80] (4.68, -10) ellipse (1cm and 0.6cm);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (7.9, 7) -- (7, 6.5);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (9.8, 7.0) -- (11.6,5.05);
    \draw[->, line width = 3pt, ForestGreen] (10.3, 6.45) -- (10.5,3.95);
    \node at (11, 7.7) {\parbox{6cm}{Upzoning is effective when prices are high enough and density is low enough.}};
  \end{tikzpicture}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}[t]{Where does relaxing zoning lead to increased supply?}
  \label{slide:het_effects_upzoning_5}
  \vspace{-0.6cm}
  \parbox{.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{figure}
      \centering
      \includegraphics[width=0.48\textwidth]{figures/structural_model_zoning_counterfactuals_heatmaps_effect_nozoning_increase_far.pdf}
    \end{figure}
  }\hfill\parbox{0.5\textwidth}{
    \begin{wideitemize}
      \item<+-> Upzonings should be \textbf{targeted}.
      \begin{itemize}
        \item Upzoning is politically costly.
        \item Can achieve half of the gains of removing zoning by deregulating 12\% of the land.
      \end{itemize}
      \item<+-> NYC's planners already do targeting.
      \item<+-> Upzoning would likely have limited effects in inexpensive cities.
    \end{wideitemize}
    \vspace{3.2cm}
  }
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{frame}

\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Additional results}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Additional results}
  \label{slide:additional_results_summary}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item \textbf{Distributional effects}.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Lower-income workers benefit more.
    \end{itemize}
    \item \textbf{Alternative policies} to promote construction and affordability.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Upzoning outperforms reducing construction costs and tax incentives.
      \item Contribution to the literature on the topic: Glaeser and Gyourko (2008), Soltas (2024)...
    \end{itemize}
    \item \textbf{Supply elasticities}.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Compute supply elasticities at a granular level and different time horizons.
      \item Supply elasticities vary widely across neighborhoods. Zoning is their primary determinant.
      \item Contribution to the literature on the topic: Saiz (2010), Baum-Snow and Han (2024)...
    \end{itemize}
  \end{wideitemize}
  \vspace{1.5cm}
\end{frame}

\begin{subtransitionframe}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Why did NYC's planners impose costly zoning regulations?}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{subtransitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Why did NYC's planners impose such costly regulations?}
  \label{slide:why_zoning}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> Zoning creates large welfare losses. Why is it in place?
    \item <+-> When the zoning code was crafted in 1961, restricting construction had limited costs.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Low population growth and land values, floorspace prices close to marginal cost.
      \item Zoning could help curb negative spillovers from manufacturing.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> Much has changed since 1961:
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Floorspace prices have skyrocketed, manufacturing activity has plummeted.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> But zoning has been much more persistent than planners anticipated and intended.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Rezoning is vulnerable to obstruction by those with a stake in the status quo.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{transitionframe}
  \label{section:conclusion}
  \begin{center}
    {\Huge Conclusion}
  \end{center}
  \addtocounter{framenumber}{-1}
\end{transitionframe}

\begin{frame}{Conclusion}
  \begin{wideitemize}
    \item <+-> \textbf{Redevelopment} is key to the economics of densely built areas.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Increases the supply of floorspace and reallocates land to most profitable use.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> This paper provides a framework to analyze this process.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item I use it to study the effects of zoning.
      \item Can be applied to other questions (rent control, transit upgrades, remote work, structural transformation, property taxation).
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> Large fixed costs of redevelopment.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Even at a 40-year horizon, \textbf{take-up of upzoning is limited}.
      \item Upzoning works best when \textbf{prices are high/density is low}.
    \end{itemize}
    \item <+-> Gains \textbf{take time to materialize} and are \textbf{geographically spread out}.
    \begin{itemize}
      \item Local reforms might look disappointing despite \textbf{large aggregate/long-term gains}.
    \end{itemize}
  \end{wideitemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}
